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Researchers attending the Workshop on Scientific Requirements for Mitigation of Hazardous Asteroids and Comets in Arlington in the US last week presented ideas on how best to communicate the hazards posed by Near Earth Objects. Clark Chapman, from the Southwest Research Institute, and Brendan Mulligan, from Queen's University, Canada, examined hazard scales that have been used to communicate the hazards of everything from hurricanes and forest fires to nuclear war and terrorism. Chapman says that the Torino Scale for impact risk seems to hold up well.
The Torino Scale, which was designed with the general public in mind, ranks threatening near-Earth objects on a zero-to-ten basis. A value of zero means that the risk of a certain object hitting Earth is lower than that from a random strike within the same time frame by an unknown object of comparable mass. Higher values represent both a more likely probability of impact and a more severe outcome. Chapman also suggested that astronomers should avoid references to the Palermo Scale that figured prominently in the reports six weeks ago about a low-probability possible impact in 2019 by asteroid 2002 NT7. The Palermo Scale was created for astronomers and it's significance can easily be misunderstood by non-specialists.
David Morrison, from NASA Ames Research Center, says that on the one hand, media reports do help raise public awareness of the issue, but they also have "demeaned the credibility of astronomers in the public's eye." While astronomers should not suppress information, he suggests, they should make sure that a good, responsible report of the facts is quickly available.
Morrison criticised recent suggestions for a military-run early warning center for asteroid impact predictions. US Brigadier General Simon Warden has suggested that an asteroid warning center could co-ordinate search and response programmes and provide military decision makers with appropriate advise and information. Morrison, however, says that real, substantiated warnings of a serious asteroid danger will be so rare that such an organisation is not required. Many small asteroid and comet fragments, however, do explode in the atmosphere but have no affect on the ground and General Warden has suggested that a center could provide information on such events to governments around the world.
Duncan Steel, from the University of Salford, suggested his own analogy to help the public understand the risk and how to put it in perspective: comparing the asteroid threat to the risk of cancer. "For any individual, the risk is low on any given day, but must be taken seriously; early detection is crucial — if one is detected, suddenly the high cost of mitigation becomes irrelevant. And if it is detected early enough, the treatment can be highly effective". Although the risk to an individual of dying in an impact are tens to hundreds of times less than dying in an impact, the analogy clearly illustrates the need to continue searching for potentially hazardous Near Earth Objects and why it is important to keep the public informed.
More info: Sky and Telescope
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