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Preliminary observations of the asteroid’s orbit suggest that it could strike or pass close to our planet on 1 February 2019. From its brightness astronomers believe the asteroid is 2 to 4 kilometres wide, a size capable of causing continent-wide devastation and causing global climate change.
The asteroid was first discovered on 9 July by the Linear Observatory’s automated sky survey programme in New Mexico, US. Astronomers will spend the next few months closely studying Asteroid 2002 NT7, which is bright enough to be tracked even by small telescopes. They expect more observations over the next month to show that the asteroid is not on an Earth-intersecting trajectory.
The orbit of 2002 NT7 is recalculated once a day in 3 different areas across the globe to give us the most accurate calculations possible. “Today calculations show a 1 in 60 000 chance that the asteroid will strike Earth. But, with tomorrow’s observations this will change” says Dr Alan Fitzsimmons astronomer at Queens University Belfast and scientist for the Near Earth Objects Information Centre at the National Space Centre.
For example, earlier this year the probability of Asteroid 2002 CU11 hitting Earth was calculated as a 1 in 9 000 chance on one day, and we now know the probability of this rock hitting us in the next 100 years is zero.
By studying the Earth’s history we can predict large asteroid impacts to occur once every 100 000 to every 1 000 000 years depending on the size of the object.
While the vast majority of NEOs discovered do not come close to Earth, asteroids such as 2002 NT7, highlight the importance of detecting these objects. The reminder come as UK telescope in La Palma are being tested to search for NEOs.
Over the next couple of months the NEO Information Centre will keep you updated on the orbit of 2002 NT7 as it becomes better defined.
More info: BBC Online, Science and Nature
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